Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 19.723300 23.794127 28.303740 33.643604 39.766396 46.539636 54.570236
2025-03-09 13.566630 18.794630 25.218249 33.573768 44.027182 56.540395 72.506131
2025-03-16 9.444553 14.716426 21.773925 31.664596 44.889937 61.668691 84.228675
2025-03-23 7.682747 13.180942 21.064520 32.769369 49.222656 71.003510 101.407901
2025-03-30 5.997037 11.320921 19.481863 32.277870 51.112893 77.021937 114.410832
2025-04-06 5.209022 10.654801 19.474660 33.922864 55.973371 87.216739 133.456571
2025-04-13 3.828034 8.667563 17.059625 31.555418 54.647865 88.515497 140.114877
2025-04-20 3.241367 7.964307 16.607246 32.157474 57.743243 96.239410 156.149621
2025-04-27 2.802761 7.442147 16.369309 33.040050 61.277263 104.736817 173.643635
2025-05-04 2.470216 7.059297 16.312349 34.189458 65.271514 114.084029 192.760236
2025-05-11 2.134144 6.585581 16.002704 34.831656 68.430011 122.251027 210.400931
2025-05-18 1.764659 5.935058 15.236681 34.536393 69.939704 127.847842 224.290278
2025-05-25 1.381380 5.174860 14.201766 33.780994 70.885395 133.067270 238.641524
2025-06-01 1.112678 4.635400 13.556305 33.728456 73.122059 140.616440 257.219336
2025-06-08 0.797825 3.818908 12.099030 31.813243 71.744137 141.997753 265.897995
2025-06-15 0.689563 3.623166 12.089711 32.922247 76.096243 153.315197 291.237916
2025-06-22 0.536845 3.193556 11.392581 32.428905 77.294928 159.193488 307.776211
2025-06-29 0.483130 3.123688 11.638466 34.080065 82.822205 172.943140 338.043214
2025-07-06 0.326543 2.515670 10.235819 31.703727 80.027936 171.628253 342.620702
2025-07-13 0.272855 2.349710 10.087699 32.308056 83.391904 181.639684 367.046039
2025-07-20 0.233055 2.229905 10.056179 33.193949 87.400826 193.009015 394.229541
2025-07-27 0.203316 2.147315 10.127605 34.347651 92.053503 205.770605 424.283910
2025-08-03 0.170270 2.017682 10.010930 34.992237 95.631377 216.639495 451.327053